![]() ![]() But this is exactly what’s needed in order to establish the rules of the road that will help avoid future collisions. Washington’s fighting mood also makes it harder to communicate US red lines and strategic boundaries ahead of time. Beijing has brought much of this hostility on itself through its bombastic nationalist turn under President Xi, but Washington’s pugnacious mood makes it all the more likely that US leaders will overreact when the next crisis hits – especially if they misunderstand what’s really going on in Beijing because diplomacy has broken down. Condemning China seems to be a rare bipartisan sport these days in Washington. Last week, they refused to use the established hotline on the grounds that this was a civilian incident, even though the balloon was controlled by the Chinese military.īut it doesn’t help the situation that the US Congress has been priming for a fight. Beijing often doesn’t follow the agreed rules and has been reluctant to use the military-military hotlines designed for emergency communication in a crisis. A significant part of the blame here falls on Chinese shoulders. But these arrangements haven’t been working well – a problem recognized among many experts, including some in the White House. Some analogous arrangements between China and the United States do exist today to prevent potential clashes at sea or in the air from inadvertent escalation. Washington and Moscow also set up military to military hotlines so that when accidents happened, they could communicate quickly and stop an escalating crisis from spiraling out of control. Both sides may have broken the rules sometimes, but they were at least aware of them and this reduced the risk they would go to war by mistake. Rules of the road for certain military and intelligence activities emerged. Through experience, diplomacy and communication, Moscow and Washington came to understand each other’s boundaries – where, and where not, to step in the jungle. ![]() Containing crises in the future will be much harder if lives are lost or sensitive military and intelligence systems are damaged.ĭuring the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union developed ways of reducing the risk of inadvertent escalation. But the story might have been different if US leaders had thought otherwise or if they had not been able to figure out whether or not the balloon was a threat in the first place. This was in large part because the United States judged the threat to be low early on. This time, the damage seems to have been contained. It can also happen if our leaders misjudge how important some piece of military or intelligence equipment is to the other side, target it and mistakenly unleash all holy hell. A pilot could go off course, a government’s internal bureaucratic process might break down, satellites or aircraft could collide, sensors or other equipment could malfunction – to name just a few possibilities. Inadvertent escalation happens when one nation’s mistake accidentally frightens another into an attack. When they do, there will be a serious risk of an accident or miscalculation that leads to inadvertent escalation – or even outright war. This makes for a much more crowded military and intelligence operating environment, an increasingly dense jungle where the United States and China are likely to run into each other again and again in the future. Take just one data point: US reconnaissance flights along Chinese borders are now flying multiple times a day. Meanwhile, the US continues to grow its own capabilities. China has been growing not only its military capabilities, but also its intelligence collection platforms. ![]() Unlike the cloak and dagger spying of an earlier age, modern intelligence collection is multi-domain, persistent and global – at least when it comes to the great powers – and everyone is racing to build up their capabilities in new areas like cyber and space, even as they deploy human spies to go after each other’s most precious national secrets. The risk of clashes in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea have preoccupied military experts for years, but the balloon incident shows they could happen almost anywhere. But the reality is that events like this will be more and more likely in the next decade as the United States and China bump up against each other globally. ![]() Any US leader would be hard pressed not to shoot down a Chinese object that the American public has seen flying over US sovereign airspace – as President Biden decided to do on 4 February. It would be better if China didn’t spy on the United States. ![]()
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